Xiaomi EV sales to reach 1 million by 2028, Goldman Sachs says

A bullish Goldman Sachs forecast puts Xiaomi EV on track to cross the one-million-delivery threshold by 2028, but the road from consumer-tech disruptor to global automotive heavyweight will be shaped as much by factories, export execution and market timing as by product momentum

Xiaomi SU7 Ultra

Goldman Sachs has placed Xiaomi EV among the most closely watched growth stories in China’s electric-vehicle sector, forecasting deliveries of 500,000 units in 2026, 770,000 in 2027 and 1.036 million in 2028. That trajectory would move Xiaomi from credible newcomer to million-unit manufacturer in just a few model cycles, an unusually compressed timetable even by China’s standards.

The forecast rests on a broadening product portfolio rather than on a single breakout model. In 2026, Goldman Sachs expects the SU7 sedan range to contribute 223,000 units and the YU7 SUV 159,000 units, while the Sky Nomad N90 and N70 range-extender SUVs add 53,000 and 64,000 units respectively. By 2027, the SU7 and YU7 are projected to remain the brand’s volume anchors, while the N90, N70 and a new large SUV lift total deliveries to 770,000 units. A further midsize sedan is expected to join the lineup in 2028, helping push sales beyond the one-million mark.

The ecosystem advantage

Xiaomi’s most distinctive asset remains its ability to treat the car as part of a wider digital environment. Its human-car-home ecosystem gives the company a credible software and connectivity story from day one, supported by a vast installed base across smartphones, consumer electronics and AIoT devices.

That matters in a market where cockpit experience, device continuity and over-the-air software identity increasingly influence purchase decisions. Traditional automakers can build strong electric platforms, but few can match Xiaomi’s ability to connect the vehicle naturally with the rest of a consumer’s digital life.

Capacity is the critical bottleneck

The main obstacle is not demand ambition but industrial execution. Xiaomi’s Beijing Yizhuang base currently provides a designed annual capacity of 450,000 units across three vehicle-plant phases. Under full dual-shift operation, theoretical output could approach 600,000 units, but real-world production is constrained by line calibration, mixed-model complexity and ramp-up discipline.

The company’s second base in Wuhan, which broke ground in June 2026, is planned for 300,000 units of annual capacity and is expected to enter production in the fourth quarter of 2027, with a focus on range-extender models. To approach one million deliveries in 2028, Xiaomi will need a near-flawless transition: sustained high utilization in Beijing, fast commissioning in Wuhan and no major interruption in supply-chain cadence.

A softer domestic market raises the stakes

Xiaomi’s growth plan is unfolding against a less forgiving Chinese auto market. According to China Passenger Car Association data cited in market reports, passenger-vehicle retail sales in July 2026 were estimated at 1.506 million units, down 18% year on year, while year-to-date retail sales fell 20% to 10.207 million units.

Xiaomi YU7 GT

New-energy vehicles continue to outperform conventional combustion vehicles, but even this segment is no longer expanding without friction. July NEV retail sales were estimated at 970,000 units, down 2% year on year, while January-to-July NEV retail sales reached 5.675 million units, down 12%. High penetration shows the direction of travel is electric, but weaker retail momentum signals that Xiaomi cannot rely on domestic demand growth alone.

Exports become the strategic release value

The contrast with exports is striking. Chinese automakers are increasingly using overseas markets to absorb scale and reduce dependence on domestic competition, and Xiaomi appears ready to follow that logic. The company has indicated that its international rollout will begin in late 2027, with Europe as the first region and Germany as the initial launch market.

The strategy is deliberately gradual: premium models before mass-market vehicles, developed markets before emerging markets, and left-hand-drive markets before right-hand-drive countries. Xiaomi also plans to lean on its global retail presence, using Xiaomi Home stores and a hybrid direct-and-authorized channel model to build early market visibility faster than a conventional startup could.

A credible target. Not a guaranteed one

Xiaomi EV has the product momentum, brand recognition and digital ecosystem to make a million-unit annual run plausible by 2028. Yet plausibility is not inevitability. The company’s success will depend on whether manufacturing capacity, European execution and consumer demand can mature at the same pace as the forecast. In automotive terms, Xiaomi has already proved it can launch quickly; the next test is whether it can scale like an established global carmaker.