Deutsche Bank raised its sales forecast for Nio from 330,000 to 450,000 units in 2025

Deutsche Bank raised its sales forecast for Nio Inc in 2025, using the same 450,000 full-year 2025 sales assumption as the company's guidance and expects Nio brand to sell 223,000 cars in 2025, Onvo 219,000, Firefly 8,000 

Deutsche Bank raised its sales forecast for Nio Inc in 2025, after the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker's earnings call provided increased visibility. “We now expect NIO brand to sell 223k units in 2025 (up 10% YoY), and ONVO brand to sell 219k units in 2025 (vs. ~20k units in 2024), along with 8k units from Firefly brand,” analyst Wang Bin's team said in a research note today. The team used the same 450,000 full-year 2025 sales assumption as Nio's guidance. Nio yesterday guided for fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries to be in the range of 72,000 to 75,000 units and said it was confident of doubling sales in 2025. That means the company now expects deliveries to be in the range of 221,000 to 224,000 units in 2024 and about 450,000 in 2025.

On September 6, Deutsche Bank, following the release of Nio's second-quarter earnings report, expected the EV maker's total sales in 2025 to increase 44 percent year-on-year to 330,000 units, including 210,000 units for the Nio brand, 110,000 for Onvo and 10,000 for Firefly. Nio management said in a September 5 call that it was targeting 20,000 Onvo L60 deliveries during this year, with the hope that the model will reach 20,000 deliveries in a single month some time in 2025. Onvo -- the Nio sub-brand previously codenamed Alps -- officially launched the L60 on September 19 and began deliveries on September 28, and Onvo president Alan Ai said at a November 15 media briefing on the first day of the Guangzhou auto show that more than 7,000 units of the L60 had been delivered.

Nio announced yesterday that its third brand, internally codenamed Firefly, is officially named Firefly, and that its first product will share the sub-brand's name. The Firefly brand will be officially launched at Nio Day 2024 on December 21 and its first model will be delivered in the first half of 2025, Nio said yesterday. The main Nio brand will launch the ET9 flagship sedan in March 2025, and Onvo will launch two SUVs next year, including a six/seven-seater and a big five-seater, according to yesterday's call. The ET9 was already unveiled at last year's Nio Day event. Apart from these models, the Nio brand will gradually switch to the next generation platform next year. Wang's team expects the Nio brand to update five products in the second half of 2025, such as the next-generation ES6 SUV, EC6 SUV, ES7 SUV, ET5 sedan, and ET5 Touring sedan. The team expects Nio to upgrade the ES7 to a larger six-seat SUV in 2025.